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MacRauri
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Joined: 26 Nov 2011
Posts: 47
Location: Twin Cities MN
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 Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:18 pm Post subject: d6 probability spreadsheets |
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I enjoy the crazy storytelling a cinematic action the d6 system allows, but I'm also interested in its mechanical structure and the probability distributions it creates. Problem was the wild die made it mathematically inapproachable for the longest time. Surfing around I found "Da Bum's" spreadsheet and graphs. Great stuff.
http://www.daemonstorm.com/role-playing/d6-system/D6-Probabilities-with-the-Wild-Die
I used his experimental cumulative probabilities to create my own spreadsheet that has probabilities of rolling higher, and higher by 4+, 9+, 13+ and 16+ for various amounts of dice. I wanted to know the likelihood of beating an opponent's dodge and the likelihoods of getting them to a certain wound level.
I haven't seen any tool like this available and would like to make my document available to the community. Problem is I don't have a FileShare and the spreadsheet is in Numbers (sorry). If there's interest please PM me. |
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S-Foil
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Joined: 21 Feb 2011
Posts: 70
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| Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:17 am Post subject: |
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What synchronicity, I wrote a similar perl script before Christmas to do something very similar. I'm attempting to roll a very simplistic combat simulation to compare two characters based on their skill and equipment. I'm calculating the average number of turns needed for a character to incapacitate a Stormtrooper (or get incapacitated themselves).
If I ever finish it I'll post the results because I've found my preliminary numbers heavily affected by the presence of the Wild Die. |
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Fallon Kell
Commodore
Joined: 07 Mar 2011
Posts: 1846
Location: Tacoma, WA
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| Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:46 am Post subject: |
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Thank you for the powerful maths! I will be able to make great use of this!
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Bren
Vice Admiral
Joined: 19 Aug 2010
Posts: 3868
Location: Maryland, USA
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| Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:28 pm Post subject: Re: d6 probability spreadsheets |
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| Cool stuff. 8) I think your spreadsheets might make a good addition to the D6 magazine as a follow on to the article they had in Issue #1 on probabilities for D6. |
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Barrataria
Commander
Joined: 28 Dec 2005
Posts: 295
Location: Republic of California
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| Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 5:26 pm Post subject: Re: d6 probability spreadsheets |
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| MacRauri wrote: |
I haven't seen any tool like this available and would like to make my document available to the community. Problem is I don't have a FileShare and the spreadsheet is in Numbers (sorry). If there's interest please PM me. |
I was looking for just such a thing, and I have looked an enjoyed greatly. Thanks for sharing it.
A dumb question though... why does the chart, for instance, say that there's only a 94% probability when rolling 3D to get a 2? Does this assume the wild die comes up one and is ignored? Sorry if this is a stupid question.
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"A special effect without a story is a pretty boring thing"- George Lucas |
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atgxtg
Rear Admiral
Joined: 22 Mar 2009
Posts: 2460
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:42 pm Post subject: |
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Has anybody noticed that the table is off?
For instance, according to the table the odds of rolling a 5+ on 1D is the same as rolling 6+ (33.31% according tot he table). That's not right!
The chance of rolling 5+ on 1D (wild die) is 33.33% (close enough to 33.31%), but the chance of rolling 6+ is 16.67% not 33.31%. And the chance of roll 7+ should be the same as rolling 6+ since you reroll the 6 on the wild die. |
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cheshire
Arbiter-General (Moderator)
Joined: 04 Jan 2004
Posts: 4853
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| Posted: Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: d6 probability spreadsheets |
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| Barrataria wrote: | | MacRauri wrote: |
I haven't seen any tool like this available and would like to make my document available to the community. Problem is I don't have a FileShare and the spreadsheet is in Numbers (sorry). If there's interest please PM me. |
I was looking for just such a thing, and I have looked an enjoyed greatly. Thanks for sharing it.
A dumb question though... why does the chart, for instance, say that there's only a 94% probability when rolling 3D to get a 2? Does this assume the wild die comes up one and is ignored? Sorry if this is a stupid question. |
IIRC The author of the charts was using a 2nd ed, not an R&E rule set. In this rule set if you role a 1, you roll the wild die again to see what happens. Therefore, the probability of getting less than 3 is reduced.
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Barrataria
Commander
Joined: 28 Dec 2005
Posts: 295
Location: Republic of California
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| Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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| atgxtg wrote: | Has anybody noticed that the table is off?
For instance, according to the table the odds of rolling a 5+ on 1D is the same as rolling 6+ (33.31% according tot he table). That's not right!
The chance of rolling 5+ on 1D (wild die) is 33.33% (close enough to 33.31%), but the chance of rolling 6+ is 16.67% not 33.31%. And the chance of roll 7+ should be the same as rolling 6+ since you reroll the 6 on the wild die. |
Yes, I stopped working with this as I didn't understand the math underlying it.
And thanks cheshire for your response. I've never used R&E so I've always assumed the mechanics are the same.
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"A special effect without a story is a pretty boring thing"- George Lucas |
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